The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally is facing a test as both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded heavy outflows, dampening market sentiment that had built around October’s historically bullish trends.

According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs saw $145.68 million in net outflows on October 20, marking their third consecutive day of withdrawals.

Bitcoin spot ETFs followed with a $40.47 million net outflow, extending their losing streak to four days.

The timing of the withdrawals has sparked concern among traders and analysts who expected October’s seasonal momentum to push crypto assets higher.

Historically, Bitcoin has closed October in positive territory in 10 of the past 12 years, earning the nickname “Uptober.” But this year, capital movements suggest that optimism may be cooling.

Ethereum ETFs Lead the Exit as Institutional Flows Reverse Course

Ethereum’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are showing a marked shift in sentiment, with investors pulling significant capital after a brief period of strong inflows earlier in the month.

The sector saw $145.68 million in outflows on Monday, dragging total Ethereum ETF assets under management (AUM) down to $26.83 billion, which is roughly 5.56% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization.

The largest withdrawal came from BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA), which alone lost $117.86 million, followed by Fidelity’s FETH with $27.82 million in redemptions.

Other major funds, including VanEck’s ETHV and Bitwise’s ETHW, recorded no inflows for the day.

Data from SoSoValue shows that, despite the recent setback, cumulative net inflows for Ethereum spot ETFs still stand at $14.45 billion since their debut.

However, the past week’s turbulence marks three consecutive days of net outflows, erasing part of the gains achieved during early October’s mini rally that briefly pushed total inflows toward the $15 billion mark.

Market analysts suggest the retreat is partly linked to a cooling of demand among large Ethereum treasury holders.

Entities such as Sharplink and Bit Digital have reportedly slowed their accumulation pace, while ETHZilla Corporation is currently sitting on losses exceeding $8 million, showing growing unease around Ethereum’s short-term price outlook.

On-chain data adds to the caution. Both the Ethereum Foundation and PulseChain Sacrifice wallets have moved large amounts of ETH in recent days, sparking speculation that internal repositioning among key holders may be amplifying selling pressure.

Ethereum’s price has hovered near $3,884, with traders eyeing the $3,900 level as a potential support zone. The ETF pullback, coupled with profit-taking and treasury adjustments, indicates a broader recalibration in how institutions are managing exposure to Ethereum amid shifting macro and market conditions.

Bitcoin ETFs Record Fourth Straight Outflow Day

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are enduring a sustained wave of redemptions, marking their fourth consecutive day of outflows amid renewed investor caution.

On October 20, Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $40.47 million in net withdrawals, extending a week that already saw a massive $1.23 billion outflow—one of the steepest since mid-summer.

The largest outflow came from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which saw $100.65 million pulled from its holdings.

Despite the setback, IBIT still maintains the largest historical inflow among all Bitcoin ETFs, with cumulative investor commitments now standing at $64.88 billion since launch.

Other issuers, however, posted mixed results. VanEck’s HODL ETF attracted $21.16 million in new inflows, while Bitwise’s BITB added $12.05 million, indicating that some segments of institutional demand remain resilient despite the broader cooling trend.

Analysts note that such inflows into smaller funds often reflect strategic rebalancing rather than renewed bullish conviction.

According to SoSoValue, the total net asset value (NAV) of Bitcoin spot ETFs currently sits at $149.66 billion, representing 6.76% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

When compared to October 2024, the current activity shows a notable slowdown.

Last year, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $5.35 billion in new flows during the same period, while October 2025 has so far seen only $3.73 billion.

Market observers noted that the recent outflows were due to a mix of profit-taking, macroeconomic pressures from Trump and China’s tariff war, and a temporary pause in institutional risk appetite following Bitcoin’s muted price action around the $110,000 level.

Can Uptober Hold? Bitcoin Faces $100K Test, and Ethereum Down 17% in Two Weeks as Macro Risks Mount

Historically, October has been Bitcoin’s most consistent winning month, dubbed “Uptober” by traders for its track record of double-digit gains.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has finished October in positive territory 10 out of 12 times, with an average monthly gain of 15% to 22%, according to CoinGlass.

However, 2025’s version of Uptober is proving less euphoric. Bitcoin’s price dipped to $107,460, down 2.5% on the day, after failing to sustain early-week gains. Also, ETH is down by 17% in the last 14 days.

The pullback coincides with growing risk-off sentiment as macro and political uncertainties cloud investor confidence.

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 18th day, has sparked widespread demonstrations across major cities, adding a layer of instability to markets already contending with trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

President Donald Trump, who recently floated a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, softened his stance over the weekend, calling the proposal “not sustainable.”

Nevertheless, traders remain wary ahead of his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.

Analysts also point to the Federal Reserve’s expected two rate cuts this quarter, which could unlock portions of the $7 trillion sitting in money market funds, potentially benefiting crypto markets if risk sentiment improves.

Notably, analysts warn that if ETF outflows persist, the “Uptober” narrative could lose steam, testing key support levels around $100,000 for BTC and $3,800 for ETH.

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